Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 2.072790e-01 0.246438 0.288362 0.336312 0.389366 0.446011 0.510801
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.477223e-01 0.198558 0.257228 0.328841 0.412805 0.507107 0.619991
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1.112313e-01 0.168694 0.239895 0.331964 0.445295 0.577838 0.742145
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.091116e-02 0.139838 0.218448 0.325992 0.464494 0.632432 0.846985
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.617243e-02 0.112590 0.194123 0.312250 0.471195 0.670523 0.932220
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.346975e-02 0.099706 0.186829 0.319121 0.503343 0.740345 1.057838
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.074271e-02 0.083151 0.171192 0.311950 0.515190 0.783592 1.150489
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.526850e-02 0.077873 0.171807 0.327628 0.558313 0.868371 1.297905
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.860186e-02 0.067985 0.163124 0.327978 0.579127 0.923423 1.407471
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.361101e-02 0.059734 0.155690 0.329064 0.600306 0.978871 1.518154
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.059932e-02 0.055011 0.153758 0.338425 0.633541 1.051257 1.652416
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.421359e-03 0.051556 0.153588 0.350356 0.670682 1.129583 1.795753
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.471984e-03 0.047898 0.152685 0.361315 0.707388 1.209188 1.943901
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.084370e-03 0.040800 0.143190 0.356250 0.718710 1.252718 2.043398
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.783002e-03 0.036746 0.139584 0.361256 0.745832 1.319361 2.175769
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.551655e-03 0.031110 0.130960 0.355965 0.755803 1.360895 2.273581
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.378388e-04 0.024713 0.118595 0.341989 0.750417 1.379121 2.338448
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.596289e-04 0.022625 0.117299 0.349672 0.781252 1.451777 2.481306
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.051363e-04 0.018572 0.109086 0.342270 0.785839 1.484621 2.567500
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.070175e-05 0.018220 0.112296 0.359095 0.832693 1.582542 2.748423
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.029036e-05 0.015828 0.108120 0.359555 0.850771 1.636470 2.866288
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.622063e-07 0.013796 0.104486 0.360763 0.869997 1.692296 2.987408
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.012894 0.104768 0.370754 0.905123 1.773298 3.146088